Harper has time to change his budget, it hasn't passed, he needs to recognise that the additional cost of well over $10 billion could be an overload on an already suffering economy. There is such a thing as a tipping point.
Look a these articles. $7 billion here, a few more billion there, Harper thinks the economy is leaking, we know the damn has burst. I will say this, of course
different groups have different views, but facts are facts, and this could be added on top of the already big pile of tough economic news.
Harper can't wait to see what Obama may or may not do. He needs to be proactive. Put measures in the budget now to ensure these industries are protected. If Obama acts against NAFTA, then our businesses can at least survive during what clearly would be a long and drawn out process in trade court. Canada would indeed win, because it is a clear violation of NAFTA.
Any costs associated with protecting our industries would be recovered, with penalties. Spending money in defense of what is right is always good. Workers in these industries deserve it.
Harper hopes, or perhaps knows, because personally I believe this issue is about off shore dumping by China etc., that Canada will be exempt. Obama has a constituency to play too. In the end though, as in the past, Canada is often exempt from regulations and tariffs others may face while entering US markets. Another reason why this probably won't be an issue is the fact that, and I may be wrong, but pretty confident in the numbers, 100% of our steel producers have American owners and or links. They will still be making steel, it is still needed.
The same goes for a lot of construction based industries, some but not all, have ties to American interests, which loopholes them from such clauses. The simple fact is that if American demand grows, they need our materials, or they won't be able to sustain the growth. My apologies to anyone who may loss work/money because of it, it may happen, I hope it doesn't, and I hope I am right about out industries position of strength.
Harpers plan, most likely is to look like he is being tough with Obama, standing up for Canada, all the while knowing a favourable outcome. Clever politics, terrible governing. There is a chance there will not be an exemption, these are extraordinary times. Harper needs to look smart not tough, cause the tough never works for him, and smart is slowly slipping away.
Harpers only saving grace now, and it's telling that it has come to this, is to do the right thing. It's about the only thing he hasn't done so far.
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